The difficult job political analysts have at predicting future events

On the 20th day of media coverage related to US State Department cables released by Wikileaks, embarrassing documents are again released related to Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. Although the latest Wikileaks documents may be viewed as another forthright insight into the inner workings of the Berlusconi government, the latest US State Department documents reveal that the political analysis of Italian politics by American Foreign Service officers is not as judicious as the geo-political analysis of Berlusconi’s close personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to a Guardian news report,

In the leaked memo, William Meara, the economic adviser at the American embassy in Rome, reports that despite budget cuts and

"with its 2009 G8 presidency looming", the newly installed, centre-right government "may decide to maintain funding levels [to Africa] simply to avoid an embarrassing tongue-lashing from Bono et al".

The final paragraph taken directly from a State Department memo dated 23 July 2008 reveals the difficult job political analysts have at predicting the actions of politicians like Silvio Berlusconi due to the unpredictable variable of unseen events like natural disasters.

Although the American Foreign Service officer William Meara, may have been influenced by promises of Fabrizio Nava, the director of the office of sub-Saharan Africa assistance for the Italian government that African aid levels would remain the same, it appears that domestic pressures over the handling of the Italian government of the L’Aquila earthquake would later take more precedence. The American Foreign Service officer in the Rome embassy may also have forgotten or underestimated the favorable media coverage Berlusconi receives in Italy due to his control and ownership of the media in Italy, and that the international pressure of Bono and Bob Geldof were minimal. Understanding the personal history of Silvio Berlusconi and the power of the mafia in Italian society, the political analysis by the economic adviser at the American embassy in Rome that Berlusconi would be afraid of Bono or Bob Geldof is almost amusing.

Although the plight of Africans living in starvation and poverty in former Italian colonies like Eritrea and Somalia is no laughing matter, according to the Guardian article, the fallout between Bono and Bob Geldof led to “an irreverent online game in which a cartoon character of Berlusconi is hurled into the air by a hammer thrower. "

We all love a bit of fun," the site explains. "But there's a serious point to the game – since promising to increase aid to Africa in 2005 PM Berlusconi has actually cut it.

"One man alone has done nothing. In fact, Berlusconi is doing even less now than he was five years ago. Mr. Berlusconi should be thrown out by the G8," it added.